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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionBlackSky Technology Inc. Class A Common Stock (BKSY)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$27.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $17.58 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
40
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
6 covering
1-year return
-23.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
BlackSky Technology Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
BlackSky runs a constellation of Gen-3 Earth observation satellites and sells the imagery and analytics through its Gen-3 and Spectra platforms, mostly to US and allied government customers for geospatial intelligence and monitoring. Its edge is the revisit rate and the ability to task collection quickly, which matters for defense and intelligence buyers who pay for timeliness rather than raw image archives. Revenue growth of 50.1% and a 69.9% gross margin show the software and data layer scaling faster than the hardware underneath it. Operating margin is still negative at -23.4% and return on equity is -44.8%, so the case rests on whether recurring government contracts convert into operating leverage before the cash runway becomes the constraint. At a 40 score and no earnings to anchor a multiple, it is worth a deeper look mainly to test that margin path against the contract backlog.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Severe cash burn
Negative FCF of $71.5M against $856M market cap (8.3% annual burn rate). Company is unprofitable with -61.2% net margin.
high
Earnings growth stalled
Revenue up 50.1% YoY but earnings flat (0.0% growth). Operating margin deeply negative at -23.4%, indicating scale is not translating to profitability.
high
Insider selling concentration
$2.46M in insider sales over last 10 disclosures with zero buys. Insiders are net sellers despite 8.1% ownership stake.
moderate
Elevated short interest
17.5% short interest is material. Combined with negative earnings and cash burn, suggests market skepticism on path to profitability.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 50.1% year-over-year growth, far outpacing the 17.7% five-year average and signaling strong market demand.
Latest earnings beat expectations by 15.8%, suggesting the company is executing better than the market anticipated.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of negative 61.2% and free cash flow of negative $71M show the company burns cash despite rapid revenue growth.
Diluted share count surged 56.6% in the last fiscal year, and debt-to-equity of 1.05 suggests capital raises will further dilute Class A holders.
Return on equity of negative 44.8% and ROIC of negative 19.5% indicate the company destroys shareholder value at current scale.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where BKSY's valuation models land
Price
$17.58
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $23.48
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
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BlackSky Technology's ACCE composite score climbed from 23 to 40. Here's what's driving the move and what the data actually says about $BKSY right now.